Commentary: Iraq war casualties rise

WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 (UPI) -- Nearly 70 percent of the 376 Americans killed so far in the war with Iraq have been the result of hostile action, a sharp increase over the hostile death rates in both the war in Afghanistan at 34 percent and the Persian Gulf War of 1991 at 38 percent.

Ambushes and bombing attacks against U.S. military stationed in Iraq have increased in recent weeks from about 12 to as many as 36 a day, with roughly 25 being the new norm, according to U.S. officials.

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Guerilla fighters added to the total Sunday when they reportedly shot down a U.S. Army helicopter near Fallujah as it ferried troops to Baghdad, killing at least 16 and wounding 21.

For the 24-hour period covering Monday, there were 22 "security incidents" across Iraq, not including the helicopter downing. They range from rocket-propelled grenade and mortar attacks -- on two bases in Baghdad alone -- to improvised explosive devices, according to U.S. Army documents.

A senior coalition official told United Press International nearly all of the IEDs discovered by American forces are pointed out by Iraqis.

"Fallujah remains the outlier, though," the official said. "Things are tough out there -- criminals (former regime loyalists), foreign fighters.

Since March there have been 376 U.S. military deaths in Iraq of which 249 are attributable to hostile action, with 135 of them occurring after May 1, the date President Bush declared an end to major combat operations.

During the 1991 war, 382 American personnel died during the war, with just 147 of them attributed to the enemy.

Nearly eight months after the war began, the battlefield is yielding killed-in-action rates more similar to the 20-year Vietnam War, where 81 percent of the 58,000 deaths were at the hands of an enemy, than to the Persian Gulf War.

The Persian Gulf War did not involve the capture and holding of foreign territory as the current Iraq war does. It's objective was to drive Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. Although the differences with the Vietnam conflict are significant, U.S. military officials have acknowledged guerilla tactics are in play in Iraq, concentrated in the central region of the country known to have been Saddam Hussein's stronghold.

The number of wounded in both the Afghan war and the Iraq war is roughly proportionate, although the dramatically larger American force in Iraq gives the appearance of taking much higher casualties.

At least 1,519 military personnel have been wounded thus far in Iraq, out of a force that has ranged in size from about 180,000 in country to its current low of about 130,000. The Afghanistan war saw only 146 wounded out of its current force of roughly 10,000, which has shrunk from its high of about 12,000. This puts the wounded at roughly one percent of those currently deployed. Exact percentages are elusive as the number of personnel that have served in those countries and cycled out is difficult to tally.

The Persian Gulf war saw 467 wounded. Expressed as a proportion of wounded to killed in action, the Persian Gulf war saw approximately a three to one ratio. The Afghan war is at roughly a five to one ratio, and the Iraq war is now about six to one.

The causes of non-hostile deaths in both the Iraq war and the Afghan war follow patterns similar to one another, with tiny fractions attributed to homicide and illness, and slightly higher numbers attributable to suicide.

That could change, however. The U.S. Army is investigating at least 16 deaths in Iraq as possible suicides, which, if proven, would represent a large increase. Ten deaths have already been classified as "self-inflicted," making suicide responsible for 3 percent of the total deaths in the Iraq war so far. If the 16 are added to the total, suicides would account for 7 percent of all deaths.

It would translate to a rate of about 17 suicides per 100,000 personnel, well above the army's average rate of 10 to 13 per 100,000, a rate reflected by the same demographic groups in the civilian population -- mostly young and mostly male.

This is high enough to alarm the army, which sent a mental health team to Iraq to assess the problem in September.

In peacetime, suicides account for a significant number of military deaths each year -- 18 percent or 149 of the 795 deaths in the military in 1999 were due to suicide. In 2000, it was again about 18 percent, or 142 of 774. In 2001, it was 13 percent or 118 of the 890 deaths. In 2002, it was 13 percent or 130 of the 1,007 deaths.

One significant difference between the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts is in the accident rate. In mountainous Afghanistan, accidents claimed the lives of 47 of the 89 killed so far, about 52 percent, according to Defense Department statistics. In Iraq, accidents have claimed 78 military lives, about 21 percent of the total deaths.

Comparable data was not available on the Persian Gulf war.

Accidents, mostly during training exercises, annually account for more than half of all military deaths in peacetime.

Homicides account for about 4 percent of annual deaths, in both peace and war. Deaths from illness run fairly steadily at about 18 percent.