Analysis: Turkey's Iraq dilemma

ANKARA, Turkey, Sept. 18 (UPI) -- Turkey is still hesitant about sending troops to Iraq, but is keen to preserve its strategic interests by helping restore stability and protect the unity of its U.S.-occupied southern neighbor.

Although Turkey informed the United States that it was still studying the possibility of joining coalition forces in Iraq, Ankara appointed a veteran diplomat, former ambassador to Berlin, Othman Kurturk, as head of its diplomatic mission in Baghdad. The appointment reflects the importance Turkey attaches to Iraq, especially after the emergence of the Kurds and Shiites as key forces to be reckoned with, following the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime.

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The prominence of Kurds and Shiites in Iraqi politics, prompted by the war, seems to be a diplomatic turning point for Turkey. It also explains Ankara's concern over sending troops to Iraq.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to the Kurdish city of Halabja in northern Iraq earlier this week and his call on Kurdish leaders, Masoud Barazani and Jalal Talbani, for a "more open" approach, signaled a change in Washington's attitude toward Turkey's military contribution in Iraq.

The visit was meant to draw the renewed attention to crimes committed by Saddam's regime, particularly the use of chemical weapons against Kurds in Halabja in the late 1980s. But despite Powell's assurances they will not face "mass annihilation" anymore, Iraqi Kurds refused to allow Turkish troops to deploy in Iraq, or even in areas under their control.

Powell acknowledged during a visit to Kuwait that Iraqis have "serious sensitivities" concerning the deployment of Turkish troops on their soil. Turkey's Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul believes otherwise.

Gul said earlier this week the Iraqis want Turkish troops to help restore stability and peace in their country and noted the neighbors were bound by various cultural and religious links.

Analysts in Ankara said Washington recently agreed to grant Turkey additional loans to compensate for the losses Ankara suffered as a result of the Iraq war, in a bid to tempt Ankara into sending its troops to help the coalition. Analysts said the United States also rejected a request by Iraqi Kurds to concentrate Turkish forces in the Baghdad region.

Ankara, which remains principally concerned over the shape of the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq, is suspicious about Washington's real intentions regarding the Kurds and Turkey's influence in the region. Turkish newspapers refer to the fact Washington repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction over overtures by the new Turkish government toward Arab countries earlier this year to prevent the war on Iraq and Ankara's rapprochement with Syria and Iran.

Sources close to the Turkish military told United Press International that Ankara rejected a U.S. proposal to deploy Turkish forces in western areas close to the border with Syria during ongoing negotiations between the Turkish and U.S. delegations in Ankara.

Turkish government sources appeared doubtful about Washington's intentions and said the U.S. officials want to place Turkish forces along the Syrian border, especially as the United States continues to accuse Damascus of turning a blind eye on the infiltration of Muslim extremists over its border with Iraq.

The sources also believe that Washington wants to assign the Turkish army special missions in Baghdad and the southern region, as well as the western area in proximity with the Syria border.

If that were to occur Turkish troops would find themselves facing Iraqi Shiites -- a move that would create tension between Turkey and Iran.

The sources also referred to differences between Ankara and Washington over the Kurdish issue in Turkey. They noted that suspicions about U.S. intentions concerning the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party, or the PKK's, presence in northern Iraq persisted.

This line of thinking was clearly reflected by Turkish Prime Minister Tayyib Erdogan when he recently criticized Washington's policy toward terrorism. Erdogan said terrorism was not only limited to the destruction of the World Trade Center in New York on Sept. 11, 2001.

Erdogan fears that sending troops to Iraq would affect him politically, and is likely to cost him votes.

Turkey has repeatedly expressed fears U.S.-Kurdish relations, which are getting stronger, would result in improved ties between Washington and PKK. Such fears were reiterated after top PKK member Othman Ocelan announced last week from his stronghold in northern Iraq that U.S. forces made repeated contacts with his party.

Turkey suspects "a hidden conspiracy" between the West and the Kurds to establish a Kurdish independent entity in northern Iraq. This, it fears, will prompt its own Kurdish minority to clamor for independence.

However, the Turkish government is aware its relations with Washington will be affected if it remains outside the Iraqi "equation." It also knows it now has a chance to rebuild such ties.

That's why it seems Turkey is linking its decision to send troops to Iraq to an understanding it can reach with Washington over a number of issues, including the future of the PKK guerrillas in northern Iraq.

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This article is Copyright 2003 by United Press International.

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