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Britain realises the cost of Iraq war, six months on

Monday, 06-Oct-2003 8:31AM PDT
    
Story from AFP / Andrew Gully
Copyright 2003 by Agence France-Presse (via ClariNet)

LONDON, Oct 6 (AFP) - Six months after Saddam Hussein was ousted from power the British government, reeling from a row over Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, is overstretched militarily and facing an increasing financial burden, analysts said Monday.

"Reservists normally are supposed to be called for a defensive war," Michael McGinty of the Royal United Services Institute, a leading British-based international defence and security thinktank, told AFP.


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"But (in Iraq) reservists are just used to fill the gaps in the ranks of the British army which is undermanned and overstretched," the expert explained.

Increased numbers of reservists, who demand far higher salaries than those of regular service personnel, only add to the financial headache of an occupation that is estimated to cost Britain 200 million pounds (333 million dollars, 288 million euros) a month.

At this rate, the three billion pounds put aside by Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to cover the cost of the war in Iraq and its aftermath will be exhausted by the end of the year, McGinty said.

Britain, US President George W. Bush's chief ally over Iraq, deployed over 40,000 troops to the Gulf in March to help remove Saddam from power. Some 10, 500 remain, nearly a quarter of them reservists.

According to McGinty, the government thinks British forces might remain in Iraq for another two to four years.

"Two years is difficult, four years would become very damaging," McGinty said, adding that the defence ministry was "alarmed at the financial implications of what's happening."

British Prime Minister Tony Blair faces more immediate worries over a claim that his office doctored intelligence on Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction to make a more convincing case for going to war.

An inquiry into the suspected suicide of government weapons expert David Kelly, who was at the centre of the claim over a September 2002 intelligence dossier, is due to return its findings before the end of the year.

The political fallout from Kelly's death has already led to the resignation of Blair's former communications director Alastair Campbell and could spell the end for Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, depending on the probe's

findings.          "Iraq remains an open wound," Anoush Ehteshami a professor

at Durham University in northeast England, told AFP.

While the Iraq expert agreed with McGinty that more troops may be needed, neither London nor Washington were keen to make further deployments because of "political, economic, and social consequences" at home, he said.

"They really are between a rock and a hard place," he said.

"The pace is far too slow and there are still far too many barriers in the way for us to be able to assess this at a six-month successful progress report, " Ehteshami said.

Iraq still dominates British foreign policy at a time when Blair would like to be thinking more of European matters, Ehteshami said, refering to enlargement of the European Union and Europe's new constitution.

"The real disaster for the British government would be if the situation in Iraq turns so bad that British soldiers start to be lost at a higher rate or if we have to pull out -- what we can't afford to do politically," said McGinty.

On Monday, the father of one of 51 British casualties from the conflict urged Blair not to attend a national service for those who have lost their lives.

"We all thought there was a reason for the war, but it's now clear there wasn't a reason in the first place," Gordon Evans said.

"Blair should resign and disappear quietly. He definitely should not turn up at the memorial service" on Friday, Evans said.

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