Commentary: Spanish still divided over Iraq war

FIGUEIRIDO, Spain, Oct. 22 (UPI) -- High up in these rough Galician hills, Spaniards like 68-year old Alfonso Iglesias still fret about the war in Iraq, and his own country's unpopular support of the U.S.-led invasion of the Arab state.

"I didn't like the Americans going into Iraq, but everybody must help restore peace" said the diminutive farmer whose home faces a military base. "On the other hand, I don't have kids. If I did, I wouldn't be so comfortable about having Spanish troops in Iraq."

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Anti-war protests that rocked Spain when the war first began have long died out, however. With 1,300 Spanish troops now pledged to help keep the peace in the war-torn nation, anger at Madrid's pro-U.S. stance has seasoned into a general shrug of resignation -- even scattered support.

"There's a difference between demonstrating against a war that hasn't started and protesting against a done deal," said Xaime Leiro Darriba, a reporter who covers local politics from Galicia's capital, Santiago de Compostela. "People are unhappy about the war. But there's not much they can do about it now."

The muted reaction translates into victory of sorts for Jose Maria Aznar, who opens a major donors' conference on Iraq Thursday. In backing Washington, Spain's conservative prime minster gambled against overwhelming anti-war sentiment in Spain, and criticism from some European neighbors.

But now Aznar's conservative Popular Party remains securely in power, as the Madrid conference reflects his long-standing ambitions for Spain to shine on the world stage.

Representatives from most of the 78 invited nations are expected to attend the two-day meeting, along with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Spanish officials floated expectations wildly ranging from $6 billion to $20 billion.

Earlier in the year, U.S. President George W. Bush said he wanted the international community to bridge the gap between the $56 billion the United Nations believes is needed for Iraqi reconstruction and the $20 billion earmarked by the U.S. administration.

However, even the Spanish government believes this sum is wildly optimistic.

"If we take into account the figures mentioned by President Bush, any figure from Madrid will probably come up short," said Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio earlier this month.

The pre-conference pledges made by some of the world's richest countries have proved Palacio was right to dampen expectations.

So far Japan has promised $1.5 billion for 2004; South Korea has agreed to provide $200 million and Canada said it will give $150 million. The EU has limited its contribution for next year to $233 million, while Spain and Britain -- both fervent backers of Bush -- have pledged $300 and $911 million respectively. In addition, the World Bank has offered to make $3billion to $5 billion available in loans over the next 5 years.

Spanish Finance Minister Rodrigo Rato seemed more optimistic Wednesday.

"I am convinced that everyone is going to find a way to show solidarity with the Iraqi people," the minister said.

Others are not so sure.

"In my opinion, the donors ' conference won't be a success," predicted Pere Vilanova, a political analyst at the University of Barcelona, and frequent critical of the Spanish government. "It's part of gesticulations about the nonexistent international coalition on Iraq. But the Spanish and the Americans will say it's a big success, simply because it took place."

If nothing else, the meeting marks Spain's new distance from "old Europe" -- notably its cool relations with anti-war heavyweights France and Germany. Neither country is expected to contribute much, if anything, beyond previous commitments. By contrast, the Spanish government last week pledged $300 million in financial aid for Iraq, over 4 years.

Some experts fear the rift may cost Spain crucial support as it seeks greater clout in an expanded European Union.

So far, however, Aznar has paid only a modest price for his pro-war stance. He committed no troops to the conflict. He offered a deft, if not wholly convincing argument -- that ousting Saddam amounted to a fight against terrorism -- to a Spanish population haunted by more than three decades of separatist Basque separatist violence.

Unlike Britain and the United States, accusations of exaggerating evidence about Saddam's military capabilities have not gathered major steam in Spain. Nor have calls by opposition Socialist lawmakers to send home Spanish troops in Iraq -- despite the deaths of two Spaniards, and polls indicating stubborn domestic opposition to any peacekeeping presence.

Indeed, Aznar's ruling party held its ground in May municipal elections -- trumping slumping popularity polls, and expectations of a resounding, anti-war backlash.

"Once the war is over, people stopped being so interested in international questions, and more in local problems," said Vincente Garrido, director of Incipe, an independent research institute in Madrid. "Leftist coalition parties are very divided."

"But the debate on Iraq may return during general elections next year," Garrido added. "Especially if they still can't find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Or if Spain is asked to support U.S. intervention in other places. Like North Korea."

Aznar is not running in next year's general elections. But his party and handpicked successor -- Galician native Mariano Rajoy -- are favored to win over a weak, and disorganized Socialist Party next March, and in separate Madrid elections Sunday.

Even in Galicia, where perceived government bungling over the Prestige tanker spill sparked widespread anger, Aznar's party won most of the municipal seats.

"The only area I disagree with the government is on Iraq," said Alberto Fernandez Garrido, who owns a silver shop near Santiago de Compostela's stately cathedral, and who supports the Popular Party. "But economically, the government's done a really good job. We had high inflation and high unemployment under the Socialists. That's changed under Aznar."

Such sentiments are by no means universal. On the campus of the University of Santiago de Compostela, the graffiti and "No to War" posters are fading. But Emilio Rodriguez Alvarez has not forgotten.

"We are like the younger brother of the United States," complained 20-year-old history student, who remains staunchly opposed to Spanish involvement in Iraq. "It's like we don't have our own opinions."

When the first Spanish peacekeeping forces left the Figueirido base for Iraq in July, they stirred uproar for sporting emblems depicting the Cross of Santiago Matamoros -- the legendary St. James the Moorslayer, said to help Spanish warriors drive out Muslim occupiers 800 years ago.

But some fear Madrid may ultimately pay for more than an unwitting gaffe. Recent remarks, allegedly attributed to Osama bin Laden, threaten Spain and several other countries with retaliation for backing the war in Iraq. Goodwill toward Spain in the Middle East is also fading, says Barcelona analyst Vilanova.

"The perception of Spain in the Middle East has really changed," said Vilanova, who visits the region regularly. "Spaniards have traditionally been welcome, but that's changed. I'm not talking about physical threats. But there's an unspoken question -- which is why Aznar is supporting the Bush administration."

What Spain may gain materially from supporting the Bush administration also remains unclear. Last month, Madrid landed a $3 billion contract from the U.S. Navy. But Spanish companies have yet to capitalize on post-war Iraq business. By contrast, France's Alcatel telecommunications company is indirectly profiting from a Baghdad contract awarded to an Egyptian partner, Orascom.

"Why we supported the Americans is still the million-dollar question," said analyst Garrido. "But I don't think the government is going to change after next year's elections. And I don't think Aznar's successor will really change the Spanish position."